Monday, January 24, 2011

Haters Stop Hatin : The Brett Favre Edition


As Brett Favre Rolls his wheel chair down retirement lane, hopefully the football community will stop hating. Thats correct, Brett Favre is not actually an idiot or a bad quarterback. Sure he threw an interception that kept the Vikings from getting to the Super bowl, but who is to say that it wasn't Adrian Peterson's fault; of course Brett Favre haters.

2007 - 2008. After the 2007 season, the Green Bay Packers decided to push #4 out the door, and move onto to their new up and coming Quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Now Rodgers is a good quarterback, but there was actually nothing wrong with Favre. In quarterback categories, Favre was in the top 25% on every category, including sacks(15), which was the third lowest in the league. Statistically, Favre was as sound as any quarterback, and it was certain the man was gonna play everygame.

2008-2009. After crying his way out of retirement, Favre played for the New York Jets, who were looking for a quick fix after Chad Pennington dropped the ball, or rather threw it other team very often (TDI of 1.11). The thing about the Jets is that they have bigger issues than needing a Quarterback. In the last 10 years, the Jets have been in the bottom third of TDI, Passing Yards and Sacks. Despite this, Favre had an average year. He scored above average in every category except Yards per attempt. Thus this raggedy old man was actually not bad. Sure he wasnt the man of old, but his career wasn't over, and far there were worst quaterbacks in 2008 (cough: Ben Roethlisberger, Kyle Orton and Jamarcus Russell).

2009 - 2010. The Vikings, a team built for Favre. They had a solid running game, good pass protection, and more importantly a chance to win the Super Bowl. Brett Favre finished second in passer rating, first in TDI [ thats correct haters, Brett Favre threw more touchdowns per interception than anyone else in the league], not only that, but he finished first in sacks allowed. Lets think this through, Brett Favre had statistically the best year out of any quarterback and you expected him to not come back? Granted the changes and injuries to the vikings killed him at the ripe age of 40, but the man was actually a great quarterback.

Overall Favre proved his worth as a Starting Quarterback, and he shouldn't be at blame for wanting to come back after great seasons (statistically of course).

Why The Redskins are a Terrible Team


I started doing some research on Quarterbacks after watching this weekends Playoff games. I noticed that Jay Cutler (as i have always noticed) is actually a terrible Quarterback. His Touchdown to Interception ratio (TDI) this season was a mere 1.43. The League average is 2.03 (but it a bit skewed thanks to Tom Brady who scored a 9). However, more onto the point of this post, is to why the Redskins are actually a bad organization.

As a current DC Resident, I tend to catch a lot of the Redskins games on the TV. Next season i might watch Reruns of the Antione Dodgson reality show than watch the games, because the redskins are actually that bad. Despite being the third largest Market in the world, the Redskins still continue to miss the playoffs and finish last in the league. But again, enough of my complaining and let me spit some statistics at you.

Donovan McNabb, he was the one to blame right, he was so terrible that is why Philadelphia got rid of him. Well, Donovan McNabb became worse once becoming a redskin. His TDI while playing for the Eagles was 2.31, and even in his so said "Decline" his TDI was still 2.00! Now ready for the hard facts, since playing for the Redskins, McNabbs TDI is .933. Thats right fokes, that means he threw more interceptions than touchdowns, a feat that only 6 Quarterbacks have accomplished this year, a statistics normally granted to rookies, not an 11 year Veteran Pro Bowler. Sure Donovan caused some of this, with his aging legs and failure to run the two minute offense, but that does not explain such a large drop.

Rex Grossman, sure he must have been the savor right? Nope, 7 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, not a very high number especially with the small sample size.

Kyle Shanahan, the coordinator must have caused all of this, right? Sad to say, no! While coaching for the Houstin Texans, a Shanahan quarterback never threw a TDI less than 2.

So then, whats wrong? This I dont know exactly, but i assume it stems from the top down. It looks like the Redskins have the typically European Soccer flaw, buy big, pay too much and dont fix the small things.

Lets think this one out. Sure some quarterbacks are just terrible (as in Jay Cutlers Case), however others just make bad decisions when they are rushed. The Redskins are in the bottom quarter of the league for time allowed to throw the ball. Thus McNabb (and Grossman) are forced to throw the ball to their receivers with less time to think about where go. This seems to be a trend with the Redskins Quarterbacks, over the last 3 seasons (since Mark Brunell left), the Redskins TDI is 1.1 , League average 2.1.

My suggestion - An offensive line, surprisingly cheap, the Average salary of the Patriots offensive line (the best pass protection and run protection in the league) is a mere 2.3 million dollars per year, thats about 4 million less than McNabb's. Now I understand you cant build an O-line with his salary but its a start. Protect the quarterback so he can throw some touchdowns, and let you win the game.

(By Vick, McNabbs's replacement for the eagles threw a 3.5 TDI).

See chart below, red dot is McNabb according to this year. That really high point is Tom Brady.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Love or Hate, Cant Decide

So in about 4 (long hard to live by) hours, Lebron James will (hopefully of course) tell the world where he is going to play basketball. It could be any of the 30 teams in the NBA, although some are more likely than others. After spending most of the last week, and even more so today, reading about where Lebron will go, I have hit the peak of excitement. The build up is like a roller coaster at a good Amusement park; by the end you just want it to go down so its all over with. But just before you go down you can see everything, and that happened today with me.

1) Why do i care so much about Lebron James!
To be honest, i only watch maybe 10 regular season games of the NBA, and watch mainly the playoffs. I have (nor probably will I) live in Cleveland. But if he gets picks another team, i will feel let down. The way the books are written is not about money but about passion. We should follow our dreams, and do whats better for our family. I recall when I was a kid, when the other team crushed my team 6-0 in a hockey game, my dad said... its not about winning son! Well, Lebron (who low blow warning: doesnt know his father) apparently doesn't think so. He only wants to win, well maybe not only, but he put it right next to make a lot of money.

2) Basketball (and pro sports in general) make way to much money.
Espn just added a new section to their website where you can do the math to see how much money you make compared to some athletes. Lebron isn't on there yet, but tomorrow i project that he will be on there. Paul Pierce (one of the cheaper options) makes more money in one quarter than i make in an entire year! Thats unreal, here i am slaving in my cubicle, and Pierce hits the court for 15 minutes and boom we are even...

3) When i become a Free Agent.

After my contract with my current employer expires, and i become a free Agent, i dont know if i would resign when them. I could go to some other companies, some that could make me Statistician of the year. Or i could go to a larger market, where more employees would know that I did those statistics, or more customers appreciate my numbers. The decision will be tough, one keeping me up all night, while i tutor statistics at a local college in my home town.


What i dont know is where Lebron is going, but i do know is that i am over this new coverage, and please sign me when i am a free agent.

Monday, June 28, 2010

Reboot or Wizardy


So to better understand this story, I’ll have to give you a little more background about the character named IT guy. He is in his mid thirties and full of voice. By that I mean, he doesn’t understand what an inside voice really is. This can be explained by his once ended Football career (knee injury), then transformed into a know it all football coach (but not really), and then after being fired for several losing seasons, he studied IT. He once yelled at someone on the phone with the words, and I quote “I will throw a phonebook at you, seriously a phonebook”. Some questions I had for him, where the hell was he going to find a phonebook, I thought those were like the Sears Catalog, dead in the 90’s. I also wanted to ask him, out of all things to throw… why a phonebook. Now that you got some knowledge on the character I will explain the story.

I was at work, doing my normal worky stuff. Here comes some high official who is having computer problems. Apparently he acquired a pretty bad virus over the weekend. Well the IT guy is thrown back, because he invested in the best anti-virus software out there, so it’s very unlikely that some virus got through. But he took a look at it and decided it needed a reboot. After the guy told him that it wouldn’t work, and that the computer had serious problems he continued to demand a reboot. Now my question to him is what the hell does a reboot do that magically fixes things. It’s not a reformat (which starts your computer from scratch), but rather just gives you a new set of downs, or a new inning. It really just starts from where you left off, so I doubt a reboot would “kill” the virus. Now he insisted that it needed a reboot, and refused to look at the computer until the reboot occurred. My solution to the company. If all of our IT problems can be solved with a reboot, why don’t we fired the “football” coach, and forward all of his calls to me , which I will pick up the phone and declare a reboot is needed. Because the Reboot is the Witch Doctor of the IT world. No one really knows why (or how) it fixes things, but it always does, always makes the computer (or phone) faster. So no need for IT Hogwarts, just say reboot.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Buy or Sell?
Politics

Sell - McCrystal’s Removal of office

I disagree with the decision; the man had his opinions and made them. This reminds me of early 1700 England, where if one disagreed with the king you were killed. The general is notorious for making the new plans in Afganistan his, and well frankly it’s a mess over there and someone needs to figure it out. I believe that Obama cleared his way to ending this war (for the better or for the worse). He knew with a McCrystal he couldn’t dictate the policy, something Obama takes pride in. I think it’s a bit harsh to kick someone out of their duties because they disagree with the President. If he had created a huge mess in Afghanistan it would be something else, but he had America on a better track. If this guy has any luck like Pittsburgh Perogie http://bleacherreport.com/articles/408974-pirate-pierogie-fired-due-to-facebook-comment , he just has to wait this thing out. But I’m selling the decision, because I think it was a dumb move.

Trade – Oil Drill Decision

I call this a trade because I think it could have some value, but I’m not willing to take the risk on it, but apparently a federal judge is willing to take risk. Now the Oil Spill of 2010 was something amazing, and its way too early to start yelling drill baby drill, despite thinking we should. I think the issue will create a lot of flip-floppers who debate help in the Gulf, but resort to drilling. What would I trade it for? Easy, something dealing with Alternative fuels, to be honest, I could care less about the environment (I actually save my 5 cents to buy tires to burn in the Potomac, of course im kidding). But I believe in a earned balanced market, meaning a good consumer never lets one company, or market dominate their pocketbook.

Sports

World Cup

Sell/Trade – Sell and Sell high! The Americans, won with literally seconds away from their flight back. Fluff those pillows and get some rest because Saturday is the next nail bitter for the cane walking Americans. I say sell because America (somehow) won group C, despite being seconds away from losing. That means every American thinks we are awesome, and actually stand a chance of winning the World Cup, sorry America, reality will set in. America still is unlikey to win this thing, but coming off a win, its always smart to sell.
Entertainment

Mylie Cyrus
SELL!! The World is utterly confused, is she Walt Disney Cyrus or the Lindsey Lohan Cyrus, its up in the air and the transition has been too much. The world is really wondering who she really is, so I say sell why she still has market value.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Stephen Strasburg

Is Stephen Stasburg the savior of the Washington Nationals, No! But he is a start. The problem with Strasburg is that he plays for the Washington Nationals! Who have an average age of old 27.5, but look who their stars are. Pudge Rodriguez, 38, Adam the strike-out king Dunn who is 30 and Ryan Zimmerman who looks like he is 32, but is actually only 25. The problem is worse than just age for the nationals. Sure like all teams they are plagued by injury, with Scott Olsen, who almost no hit the braves, but the team lacks production when it matters. Strasburg only plays once every five days, which would get them a winning percentage of .2 assuming he wins every game, which he hasn’t thus far.
Not to take away from the Kid’s 100 mph fastball, or his crazy curve, but the kid is just that, a curveball to what the Nationals normally get. 14 strikeouts in the minor leagues against the Pittsburgh Pirates is impressive, but so are a lot of baseball stats. The Nationals need a team, not a pitcher. They did get one step closer to that with Bryce Harper, the new all star center-fielder who hits baseballs to mars .
The Stephen Strasburg lesson is nothing new to sports. Ovi – not won a Stanley cup, Lebron James – still without a Ring, the key to winning championships is getting a good team, not a good player. I will say the nats did one thing correctly, and that is that Strasburg sells tickets. Standing room only for the first time since the Senators came back to the District. The Nationals still are far away from good, 10.5 games out of first place, and dozen out of the wild car. Still have a run differential of 39, still have terrible strikeout ratios. So yes Strasburg may be a great baseball player, but without a rotation of run support its unlikely that the Nationals will see the playoffs in the next three years.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Being American at the Winter Olympics

After watching the first day of the Canadian Winter Olympics i learned some interesting facts about what its like to be an American during the Olympics. As we watch this outstanding performance of many nations, the little bit of American comes out in us. As i watched the moguls, figure skating and speed skating I realized we tend to react in the following situations. They are categorized below.

America Wins
Of course we won, we are the best country in the world, it was more of a formality that other countries tried out. I mean if we only competed against each-other we wouldn't be able to demonstrate that we are the number one country in the world. It is our superior power in the world that allows us to count 34 bronze-medals as the most amount of Medals, despite its value of third place not being as important as an Gold Medal. (PS New post coming out on how the omplyics should count medal points to see who really is the best country).

Russia Wins
If Russia wins in 2010 its okay, why you may ask. It is purely because America already destroyed them in the 1980 (semi) finals to prove our dominance. Russia has learned that America is the best country and is trying to match us. They are like that little brother of democracy, and it would be wrong if we beat them at everything. Plus Putin finally stepped down, right? so they are back to a democracy, i mean FDR had three terms!

Germany, Austria, Spain or Any European Country Wins
Well America is the melting pot. So we start to think about our grandparents. Oh totally my grandpa was German so its totally fine they win, its a sense of pride. Germany did not win the downhill alpine, rather the German people won, and since my grandfather is German i have been (no pun intended) grandfathered into supporting the Germans. If Poland wins, we still recall Neville Chamberlain, and pretty much blame him. It was his fault we had to let the Polish win every once in a while.

Switzerland Wins
Minus the fact they have once the best tennis players [ Fedderrer]. We give them two factors, one they have the alps, and thats like cheating to the winter Olympics, they can ski all the time, and bob-sled to work, its kinda in their blood. We also cant get mad for two main reasons, most of America's 401k's are invested in Swiss bank accounts. Also they are neutral, they really have never upset the world, so how could we really get mad at them.

Canada Wins
Well if its hockey and curling we expected that, the two lamest American sports, of course we invented it and gave it to the Canadians. Also, Canada is located in North America, thus they are defaulted into being Americans anyway. Their economy is weaker, their President looks American, and we sneak our under-age kids across the border to drink there. Canada is really just lamer than us, so who really cares if they finally win a gold medal at home, like whose counting that one anyway.

Korea Wins
At first we are confused, because we think Apollo Ono is American, after realizing this, we get even further confused. The Intellectuals begin to question, is this North or South Korea, hell because if its North Korea we can not let Kim Jun Ill win a medal over us. After realizing its south Korea we somewhat calm down. Then we think, well if south Korea has a team why doesn't Geographically speaking) North have a team. After this 30 seconds of confusion we forget the main cause, and are distracted by Chris Collinsworth's complete inability to explain the games, and how he keeps forgetting this is the Olympics, not the super bowl.

China Wins
Ah Crap China, we meet again. Some (including myself) wonder if first these people are old enough to compete, are they 12 or 11, whose counting on an abacus anyway. Another concern we have is whether it snows in china (naturally of course). Since the Chinese mess with their weather (if you dont think so google it), they can make it winter between 2010-2012 so their skaters get a better chance. We begin to worry when china wins. Who are they (rolling 1.3 billion deep) thinking they canbeat us at the summer winter Olympics. Is China the new russia?

Jamaica Wins
#overit. ok jamica, you got your movie about that bobsled team. We know , we got it, stick to the 100 meter dash, this is our games.