Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Ready for some Football

There are three types of teams (vaguely) in the NFL. There are those that overchieve, those that underachieve and of course, those that just achieve.

In Statistics, we like to predict the outcomes of events. I've talked earlier in the blog about win rates and how to vaguely calculate them. Over the past 56 seasons, that formula has never been off by more than one game. So i will say, it is a pretty good estimator. So I'll go over the three types of teams below.

The Achievers : These are most the teams
Team                      W            L

Baltimore 3 1
Tennessee 3 1
Houston 3 1
Buffalo 3 1
New England 3 1
Washington 3 1
New Orleans 3 1
San Francisco 3 1
Cincinnati 2 2
NY Jets 2 2
Oakland 2 2
Dallas 2 2
Chicago 2 2
Pittsburgh 2 2
Atlanta 2 2
Denver 1 3
Seattle 1 3
Jacksonville 1 3
St. Louis 0 4

These teams do things like most teams. They either score a lot, and prevent a lot of points, or they just allow a lot of points. The St. Louis Rams have that problem. The problem is , the Rams just really cant score, and give up a ton of points. They are tied for the second most amount of points given up, while their offense has only scored 46 points. That is just over 11 point average per game. Now.. i wouldnt say they dont have hope, but what they need is offense. Sure, offense and defense are highly correlated (meaning if your offense isnt of the field, your defense is out there defending it), BUT they give up an acceptable amount of points to win a few more games. They need more offense. I would suggest adding a wide out. The Rams only have 748 passing yards putting them in 26th ; but have 370 running yards getting them 23rd. All other teams, well only if I had the time!

The Over-Achievers : Teams that win, despite us not predicting that.
Team                    Wins         Loss

Detroit 4 0
Green Bay 4 0
NY Giants 3 1
Tampa Bay 3 1
San Diego 3 1
Cleveland 2 2
Kansas City 1 3

There are an array of teams here. Detriot - Not many people will complain with this one, since everyone things they are overrated and beat some "easy teams" What they have to worry about... not much actually.They have the second best offense tied with New England and the 8th best Defense. It is their defense that has expected them to lose a game. I mean, every team has to lose (well minus the 1974 Miami Dolphins). The Packers  are easy to pick apart. They are terrible at defense and there isnt much hiding that, ranked 18th on points allowed.
Kansas City - is just terrible, and got lucky on their one win against the vikings.

The Under-Achievers : Teams that win, despite us not predicting that.

Philadelphia 1 3
Arizona 1 3
Carolina 1 3
Minnesota 0 4
Miami 0 4
Indianapolis 0 4

All of these teams should be  one game higher. The Eagles have given up as many points as they have scored; and that not shockingly in their problem. Sure Vick could throw for more points and they could win games. But when your defence blows the lead they had on sunday, there is only so much you can expect from your offnese. That is what the Eagles need, an Defense. Ranks D- 23 Offense - 10. Give up less points and expect more wins. Think of this in baseball as having heavy bats, but no pitching, you'll pull a red soxs blow the season quickly.

Updates to come