September 16th 2004 started a strike followed by a lockout that would change sports forever. The National Hockey League canceled what would have been its 88th season, and put the already semi-important sport on the fringe of becoming irrelevant. The NHL became the first (and only) sport to cancel and entire season of play. All the details are interesting but not all that important. What is important is that hockey became a damaged sport. ESPN, the monopoly of national sports, decided to drop the NHL from its TV contract.
What came next was believed to be the death of the sport, but has spawned into the birth of something greater. The NHL decided to sign on with Versus (Actually the Outdoor Living Network O.L.N) for a seven year deal. They also signed local deals with Comcast sport networks and in a few markets the fox sports channel. For those seven years ESPN continued to ignore the NHL and actually increased its coverage of other sports such as Nascar and Soccer. It looks like the Versus deal panned out for both sides. The NHL has seen steady attendance increases as well as viewership over those seven years.
Most would think, so what, VS is cable only television channel, and there are less than 10 nationally televised game. The NHL wasnt stupid, it needed a new twist to attract a larger market of viewers. Besides changing the rules to allow more goals as well as to end games in a shootout instead of a draw, they started the Winter Classic. The Winter Classic is viewed on NBC, which has held the contract for the past 4 seasons. What is of greater interest is that NBC just bought Versus. Another thing to note, Comcast just bought NBC. Recall how I mentioned that the NHL has local deals with Comcast Sports Network.
The NHL contract with Versus expires shortly, and they needed a new contract with a television channel. There were a few bidders, but most notably Versus as well as ESPN made bids for the next 10 seasons. The NHL had "no regrets" with their choice of Versus, and signed up with Versus for the next 10 seasons. With a major sport under its belt, NBC,Versus and Comcast (which are all really the same), decided to test their luck and create the second 24 hour news network. This means that the monopoly of ESPN now has some competition, and they already have their foot in the door with three sports. NBC also owns the rights to the NHL, College Football (Notre Dame) and NFL (Sunday Night Football). It can get enough footage to start a decent competitor.
Now this network could flop, but what it showed was a weakness in ESPN. They did not have faith in the NHL years ago and it may come back to bite them. In the same year ESPN lost the rights to the 2014 world cup to Fox Sports (a much smaller provider). NBC sports network (pending a super cool name , maybe NBCSP or NBSPN) is at least going to have the NHL for the next 10 years and that is something to start. And it all started because of a strike, a strike that injured a sport, but rebuilt the networks it was shown on. Now only if NBC Sports can get @buster_olney to get insider information
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Friday, December 2, 2011
BCS Standoff | Who Should Play who?
Roll Tide! I have to start this post off with that, because I am about to write about why Alabama should not play LSU in the National championship. First and foremost, I respect Alabama, and I like the team. I think it would be a stretch (and bandwagonish) of me to say I'm a fan.
One Game Thats it
Alabama played LSU, you can watch clips and read about it onwe hate hockey channel ESPN. The game went into overtime, and Alabama missed a field goals that could have won them the game. However, aren't all of lives just what ifs. Alabama lost, and thats all it takes to not play in the national championship. But not only that, but they lost to the team that is currently number 1. Lets assume that they do meet in the final game for the national championship, and Alabama beats LSU. So who is the national champion? Well LSU would be 11-1 with their only loss coming to Alabama, Alabama would be 11-1 with their only loss coming to LSU, it would be a draw in all sense. But wait, the national championship somehow means more than the regular season game. So LSU is forced to beat the same team twice, and their original win over Alabama really got them... a rematch, which for all intense and purposes got them nothing.
Facts : Oklahoma State DID NOT lose to LSU. So they should get a chance to, and if its a blow out, it just proves that LSU is such a great team.
Why the Playoff System would not solve this
EVERYONE wants a playoff system, expect for the people making millions of dollars of bowl games. So there really isn't a rush to change the current system, and thank god, because that would not fix the problem. There are (roughly including the Independents) 12 conferences. So it would take 4 games, which translate to 4 weeks of playoffs to get a national champion. That would be a lot of time, but so is March Madness. All the other teams would play bowl games a one and done, kinda like it is now. This is what most people agree would solve our problem of "The Bowl System isnt fair".
If we switched to this play-off style, LSU would not play Alabama. LSU would win thenational championship SEC Championship and then enter the bracket that way. So a #1 could actually not play the #2 for the National Championship.
Football is Football| Breathe and Realize
I think its safe to say, football is football and it causes the worst problems! It has a lot of heavy hitting, and a lot time to play out a play-off system. Teams cant really play more than once a week, which would draw out this play-off bracket system.
Power Conferences
No one talks about the Big East, but they are just slightly behind SEC for highest out-conference wins Average. The Football industry, selects teams it wants to play, and finds reasons not to place them into the national championship. What they should be doing is looking at data then deciding who to put in the rankings. To date, the "Computer Poll" still relies 25% of a teams human ranking. That is 1/4 random bias. Needless to say, LSU should not play Alabama in the National Championship.
This is a chart of The Average wins out-of-conference from the teams in the conference.
One Game Thats it
Alabama played LSU, you can watch clips and read about it on
Facts : Oklahoma State DID NOT lose to LSU. So they should get a chance to, and if its a blow out, it just proves that LSU is such a great team.
Why the Playoff System would not solve this
EVERYONE wants a playoff system, expect for the people making millions of dollars of bowl games. So there really isn't a rush to change the current system, and thank god, because that would not fix the problem. There are (roughly including the Independents) 12 conferences. So it would take 4 games, which translate to 4 weeks of playoffs to get a national champion. That would be a lot of time, but so is March Madness. All the other teams would play bowl games a one and done, kinda like it is now. This is what most people agree would solve our problem of "The Bowl System isnt fair".
If we switched to this play-off style, LSU would not play Alabama. LSU would win the
Football is Football| Breathe and Realize
I think its safe to say, football is football and it causes the worst problems! It has a lot of heavy hitting, and a lot time to play out a play-off system. Teams cant really play more than once a week, which would draw out this play-off bracket system.
Power Conferences
No one talks about the Big East, but they are just slightly behind SEC for highest out-conference wins Average. The Football industry, selects teams it wants to play, and finds reasons not to place them into the national championship. What they should be doing is looking at data then deciding who to put in the rankings. To date, the "Computer Poll" still relies 25% of a teams human ranking. That is 1/4 random bias. Needless to say, LSU should not play Alabama in the National Championship.
This is a chart of The Average wins out-of-conference from the teams in the conference.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Lockout SmockOut | The Patchstats Solution
Money pays the bills, thats why everyone wants it. Whether it is a 50/50 split, or a debate over actual revenue, the lockout has made ESPN the sports industry very upset. I can say personally that I am upset, because I am forced to do college "amateur" statistics instead. I can only imagine how bad Kyrie Irving feels after leaving Duke to go sit on the sidelines while this debate is played out.Sports fans now huddle around their TV hoping that the owners and players come together and finally realize there is no I in team, [of course unless you are Lebron James]. Below I have a few comments on the Lockout and what I think we should do instead of this "66 game season", because that's just silly, for everyone involved.
Lebron James | Success of the lockout
The lockout helped someone, and that is Lebron James. He came out of this twitter battle looking like a little kid who just wants to play the games. It took a lot of the negative attention away from him and put it on the League and [all of] the players. He really hasn't lost any fitness, and its tough when you have the build of the best player in (really recent) NBA history. He has miles to go before becoming "a statue outside my stadium" legend. Think about it though, the last year and half in the NBA was about Lebron James taking his talents outside of Cleveland to Miamia to team up with these Superstars. Then when the team got on the court they had the weight of the world on them. I think a majority of sports fans are willing to drop this talk if they bring back the NBA, of course if it actually ever does come back.
Also looking at his stats, it looks like he could have used the break. This past year (as i predicted earlier in the blog) was a statistical nightmare for Lebron, he averaged less stats per minute in every category; we would have to go back to the 2005/2006 season to match these terrible numbers. Blame the Miami nightlife, the new team or a pending lockout, but Lebron fell in the numbers, so the year off could really help his Career.
The NHL/MLS Fans go wild in excitement
The lockout forced fans to take their talents elsewhere, and for some it was to the MLS, and for others the NHL. At 9pm a bar has to put on a game, no one likes to watch infomercials at a bar, that's why we drink at home! Sure the MLS caused some controversy when their playoff system created some unjust wins. But the story is, the MLS gained some reputation this past season. Although the MLS Cup final wasn't the highest attended game in history (that was in 2002 where 61,000 people attended the match), it was a large step. More games were on ESPN this year than any other previous seasons. The NBA would have taken a lot of the MLS post-season games away; no NBA more MLS games.
The NHL can finally make it on ESPN. Granted it is not until the half-way mark, but it still sneaks its way in there. And the NHL is grabbing all the NBA fans that are just looking for a sport Monday-Friday.
The Solution.
A 66ish game season is a terrible idea. Never rush a team, never rush a player, that is how injuries occur. What I think should happen is kinda like a video game. Lets redo the draft, but with all the players. The worst team from last year gets the first pick, and gets that player for the year. They play a 50 game fake season that really is just practice. My Example would have Minnesota getting Lebron James, and then the other teams would follow. This is a redistribution of wealth approach. Let these so called "poorer" teams get a chance to drive that luxury car they always wanted to. I mean even when the draft these good players they decide to go to Europe (i.e Ricky Rubio). Have the season played out, with these forced misfits and watch the NBA grow from what it use to be. I think it would add some excitement to the league, because it wouldn't guarantee the Lakers a playoff spot and Cleveland might make the playoffs again (::sigh::).
So who pays the players? The league does, the owners will pay an ownership fee to the league, consisting of their previous year's costs in salary and the league will write the checks (just for this year) to the players.
What about a trophy? Think of this as the year without a Santa Clause. Santa isnt coming down that chimney, but we can work with what we have. Make it the "Lock-out" trophy, something that resembles those high school combination locks. To remind the League and players , that when you get greedy, your reward is some crappy trophy that middle school student could have made.
This idea seems crazy, but to a statistician so does a 66 game season. To me, playing a 66 game season is like trying to drive 82 miles an hour down a highway, and oh yea, its snowing. You are putting the players at risk, the league at risk, and trying to push a bad product down our throats because ya'll couldn't agree over pretzels or potato chips. So why dont you chalk up your losses and try something new, have this Fantasy style season, where you mix and match and get to the heart of the sport instead of the revenue.
Thanks for Reading, and have a Happy Thanksgiving!
Lebron James | Success of the lockout
The lockout helped someone, and that is Lebron James. He came out of this twitter battle looking like a little kid who just wants to play the games. It took a lot of the negative attention away from him and put it on the League and [all of] the players. He really hasn't lost any fitness, and its tough when you have the build of the best player in (really recent) NBA history. He has miles to go before becoming "a statue outside my stadium" legend. Think about it though, the last year and half in the NBA was about Lebron James taking his talents outside of Cleveland to Miamia to team up with these Superstars. Then when the team got on the court they had the weight of the world on them. I think a majority of sports fans are willing to drop this talk if they bring back the NBA, of course if it actually ever does come back.
Also looking at his stats, it looks like he could have used the break. This past year (as i predicted earlier in the blog) was a statistical nightmare for Lebron, he averaged less stats per minute in every category; we would have to go back to the 2005/2006 season to match these terrible numbers. Blame the Miami nightlife, the new team or a pending lockout, but Lebron fell in the numbers, so the year off could really help his Career.
The NHL/MLS Fans go wild in excitement
The lockout forced fans to take their talents elsewhere, and for some it was to the MLS, and for others the NHL. At 9pm a bar has to put on a game, no one likes to watch infomercials at a bar, that's why we drink at home! Sure the MLS caused some controversy when their playoff system created some unjust wins. But the story is, the MLS gained some reputation this past season. Although the MLS Cup final wasn't the highest attended game in history (that was in 2002 where 61,000 people attended the match), it was a large step. More games were on ESPN this year than any other previous seasons. The NBA would have taken a lot of the MLS post-season games away; no NBA more MLS games.
The NHL can finally make it on ESPN. Granted it is not until the half-way mark, but it still sneaks its way in there. And the NHL is grabbing all the NBA fans that are just looking for a sport Monday-Friday.
The Solution.
A 66ish game season is a terrible idea. Never rush a team, never rush a player, that is how injuries occur. What I think should happen is kinda like a video game. Lets redo the draft, but with all the players. The worst team from last year gets the first pick, and gets that player for the year. They play a 50 game fake season that really is just practice. My Example would have Minnesota getting Lebron James, and then the other teams would follow. This is a redistribution of wealth approach. Let these so called "poorer" teams get a chance to drive that luxury car they always wanted to. I mean even when the draft these good players they decide to go to Europe (i.e Ricky Rubio). Have the season played out, with these forced misfits and watch the NBA grow from what it use to be. I think it would add some excitement to the league, because it wouldn't guarantee the Lakers a playoff spot and Cleveland might make the playoffs again (::sigh::).
So who pays the players? The league does, the owners will pay an ownership fee to the league, consisting of their previous year's costs in salary and the league will write the checks (just for this year) to the players.
What about a trophy? Think of this as the year without a Santa Clause. Santa isnt coming down that chimney, but we can work with what we have. Make it the "Lock-out" trophy, something that resembles those high school combination locks. To remind the League and players , that when you get greedy, your reward is some crappy trophy that middle school student could have made.
This idea seems crazy, but to a statistician so does a 66 game season. To me, playing a 66 game season is like trying to drive 82 miles an hour down a highway, and oh yea, its snowing. You are putting the players at risk, the league at risk, and trying to push a bad product down our throats because ya'll couldn't agree over pretzels or potato chips. So why dont you chalk up your losses and try something new, have this Fantasy style season, where you mix and match and get to the heart of the sport instead of the revenue.
Thanks for Reading, and have a Happy Thanksgiving!
Monday, November 21, 2011
Complain , but Stats dont see it
Since the NBA is on a lock out, ESPN has decided to go into hibernation, but I wont let that stop PatchStats. It has been a wild month, working on publications, and assisting the Saberphere on matters. However, we are back to the grind giving you a new look and reason to things.
It has been a long held belief that in sports, playing back to back games leaves a huge disadvantage for the team playing the back-to-back game. This past month I watched the Maple Leafs and Capitals both drop games on back-to-back days. The theory carries heavy in the NBA, where teams typically travel very far for one game, then off to another city for the next game. A lot of the scheduling has to do with revenue. Teams would love to get Friday,Saturday and Sunday games since they produce the highest attendance, aka Cash Money. But players cant do this, because for now, they are just humans. Disgruntled fans, and some coaches, have complained when they get a schedule with back-to-back games, as it is almost assumed the second game is a loss. However, thoughts are not numbers, and on this blog we use numbers to make conclusions.
In 2010-2011, 9 teams had a higher winning percentage on back to back games. [Canucks,Senators,Bruins,Blue Jackets,Penguins,Blackhawks,Rangers and Blues], of those 9 teams, only two of them did not make the play-offs. So most teams, had a worse winning record when playing back-to-back. However the true question is, how big is this difference, is one game, or 10, these things matter in sports. The thing is, the difference between regular season winning percentage and back-to-back games was on average only .08. Most teams only play about 1 out of every 5 games on a back-to-back schedule, the team with the highest percentage was Buffalo who played 27% of their games after a prior game.
This is your Statistician Speaking : Here is the testing done to show it has little effect
Ho : The Difference between Back-to-Back games and Regular Season Record = 0
Ha : There is some difference
T = .09/.07
T = 1.37
Thus, we conclude that there is no difference in the result of the game due to playing a game the day before.
There is some evidence, but not very strong evidence. Still, people will complain, and every loss will be because "We played the day before"
For now, keep those skates moving, because points are points.
It has been a long held belief that in sports, playing back to back games leaves a huge disadvantage for the team playing the back-to-back game. This past month I watched the Maple Leafs and Capitals both drop games on back-to-back days. The theory carries heavy in the NBA, where teams typically travel very far for one game, then off to another city for the next game. A lot of the scheduling has to do with revenue. Teams would love to get Friday,Saturday and Sunday games since they produce the highest attendance, aka Cash Money. But players cant do this, because for now, they are just humans. Disgruntled fans, and some coaches, have complained when they get a schedule with back-to-back games, as it is almost assumed the second game is a loss. However, thoughts are not numbers, and on this blog we use numbers to make conclusions.
In 2010-2011, 9 teams had a higher winning percentage on back to back games. [Canucks,Senators,Bruins,Blue Jackets,Penguins,Blackhawks,Rangers and Blues], of those 9 teams, only two of them did not make the play-offs. So most teams, had a worse winning record when playing back-to-back. However the true question is, how big is this difference, is one game, or 10, these things matter in sports. The thing is, the difference between regular season winning percentage and back-to-back games was on average only .08. Most teams only play about 1 out of every 5 games on a back-to-back schedule, the team with the highest percentage was Buffalo who played 27% of their games after a prior game.
This is your Statistician Speaking : Here is the testing done to show it has little effect
Ho : The Difference between Back-to-Back games and Regular Season Record = 0
Ha : There is some difference
T = .09/.07
T = 1.37
Thus, we conclude that there is no difference in the result of the game due to playing a game the day before.
There is some evidence, but not very strong evidence. Still, people will complain, and every loss will be because "We played the day before"
For now, keep those skates moving, because points are points.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Ready for some Football
There are three types of teams (vaguely) in the NFL. There are those that overchieve, those that underachieve and of course, those that just achieve.
In Statistics, we like to predict the outcomes of events. I've talked earlier in the blog about win rates and how to vaguely calculate them. Over the past 56 seasons, that formula has never been off by more than one game. So i will say, it is a pretty good estimator. So I'll go over the three types of teams below.
The Achievers : These are most the teams
Team W L
These teams do things like most teams. They either score a lot, and prevent a lot of points, or they just allow a lot of points. The St. Louis Rams have that problem. The problem is , the Rams just really cant score, and give up a ton of points. They are tied for the second most amount of points given up, while their offense has only scored 46 points. That is just over 11 point average per game. Now.. i wouldnt say they dont have hope, but what they need is offense. Sure, offense and defense are highly correlated (meaning if your offense isnt of the field, your defense is out there defending it), BUT they give up an acceptable amount of points to win a few more games. They need more offense. I would suggest adding a wide out. The Rams only have 748 passing yards putting them in 26th ; but have 370 running yards getting them 23rd. All other teams, well only if I had the time!
The Over-Achievers : Teams that win, despite us not predicting that.
Team Wins Loss
There are an array of teams here. Detriot - Not many people will complain with this one, since everyone things they are overrated and beat some "easy teams" What they have to worry about... not much actually.They have the second best offense tied with New England and the 8th best Defense. It is their defense that has expected them to lose a game. I mean, every team has to lose (well minus the 1974 Miami Dolphins). The Packers are easy to pick apart. They are terrible at defense and there isnt much hiding that, ranked 18th on points allowed.
Kansas City - is just terrible, and got lucky on their one win against the vikings.
The Under-Achievers : Teams that win, despite us not predicting that.
All of these teams should be one game higher. The Eagles have given up as many points as they have scored; and that not shockingly in their problem. Sure Vick could throw for more points and they could win games. But when your defence blows the lead they had on sunday, there is only so much you can expect from your offnese. That is what the Eagles need, an Defense. Ranks D- 23 Offense - 10. Give up less points and expect more wins. Think of this in baseball as having heavy bats, but no pitching, you'llpull a red soxs blow the season quickly.
Updates to come
In Statistics, we like to predict the outcomes of events. I've talked earlier in the blog about win rates and how to vaguely calculate them. Over the past 56 seasons, that formula has never been off by more than one game. So i will say, it is a pretty good estimator. So I'll go over the three types of teams below.
The Achievers : These are most the teams
Team W L
| Baltimore | 3 | 1 |
| Tennessee | 3 | 1 |
| Houston | 3 | 1 |
| Buffalo | 3 | 1 |
| New England | 3 | 1 |
| Washington | 3 | 1 |
| New Orleans | 3 | 1 |
| San Francisco | 3 | 1 |
| Cincinnati | 2 | 2 |
| NY Jets | 2 | 2 |
| Oakland | 2 | 2 |
| Dallas | 2 | 2 |
| Chicago | 2 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | 2 |
| Atlanta | 2 | 2 |
| Denver | 1 | 3 |
| Seattle | 1 | 3 |
| Jacksonville | 1 | 3 |
| St. Louis | 0 | 4 |
These teams do things like most teams. They either score a lot, and prevent a lot of points, or they just allow a lot of points. The St. Louis Rams have that problem. The problem is , the Rams just really cant score, and give up a ton of points. They are tied for the second most amount of points given up, while their offense has only scored 46 points. That is just over 11 point average per game. Now.. i wouldnt say they dont have hope, but what they need is offense. Sure, offense and defense are highly correlated (meaning if your offense isnt of the field, your defense is out there defending it), BUT they give up an acceptable amount of points to win a few more games. They need more offense. I would suggest adding a wide out. The Rams only have 748 passing yards putting them in 26th ; but have 370 running yards getting them 23rd. All other teams, well only if I had the time!
The Over-Achievers : Teams that win, despite us not predicting that.
Team Wins Loss
| Detroit | 4 | 0 |
| Green Bay | 4 | 0 |
| NY Giants | 3 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay | 3 | 1 |
| San Diego | 3 | 1 |
| Cleveland | 2 | 2 |
| Kansas City | 1 | 3 |
There are an array of teams here. Detriot - Not many people will complain with this one, since everyone things they are overrated and beat some "easy teams" What they have to worry about... not much actually.They have the second best offense tied with New England and the 8th best Defense. It is their defense that has expected them to lose a game. I mean, every team has to lose (well minus the 1974 Miami Dolphins). The Packers are easy to pick apart. They are terrible at defense and there isnt much hiding that, ranked 18th on points allowed.
Kansas City - is just terrible, and got lucky on their one win against the vikings.
The Under-Achievers : Teams that win, despite us not predicting that.
| Philadelphia | 1 | 3 |
| Arizona | 1 | 3 |
| Carolina | 1 | 3 |
| Minnesota | 0 | 4 |
| Miami | 0 | 4 |
| Indianapolis | 0 | 4 |
All of these teams should be one game higher. The Eagles have given up as many points as they have scored; and that not shockingly in their problem. Sure Vick could throw for more points and they could win games. But when your defence blows the lead they had on sunday, there is only so much you can expect from your offnese. That is what the Eagles need, an Defense. Ranks D- 23 Offense - 10. Give up less points and expect more wins. Think of this in baseball as having heavy bats, but no pitching, you'll
Updates to come
Monday, September 26, 2011
America | Where the weak surprise
In America, the poor and the underdog are always the fan favourite. This really only happens in America. As the Atlanta Braves and Red Sox continue to ruin their play-off hopes it got me thinking about how American (and ESPN for that matter) it is.
In Europe, they have mixed systems. The Barclay's Premier League, La Liga and the Bundesliga League all work on a "best" record system. Meaning, the team that ends the season with the most amount of points wins the league. Sure, it becomes less exciting when teams like Manchester United sweep the league and just crush their way to the top. But that is the World's way. The team that fought all year, shouldn't be suppressed to have to prove they are the best in some random series at the end of the year.
The World and It's Argument :
Formula 1, European Football, Golf and Rugby all have this style of awarding a winner. The team at the end of the season with the most points wins the League. While I was in England, I would discuss with the English about this. They always had solid arguments for this method. Think about if Aaron Rodgers got a concussion the last week of the season, and lets say the team had the most amount of points. Is it fair that the packers, who clearly showed they were the best should not be awarded the Super Bowl. The argument works really well in baseball where the sample size of games in much larger (162). The Phillies who are likely to go to the World Series should at least be given a direct path there. Instead, their very successful season will be tested unnecessarily against some random events. Randomness could kill a season, where the Phillies who have less likely Randomly got the most amount of points.
But this is America, and we love hope:
That is right, this is America, and like our founding, we want the small dog to overcome the evil empire [The British]. We want the Phillies to be upset by the struggling Braves, or to have the Tamp Bay Rays win on the final day of the season and make their way to the World Series where they win for the small town that barely has actual fans. This is something greater than sports!
Wild Card Sucess:
MLB : 3-World Series Won 8-World Series Appearances [Since 1981]
NFL : 5 - Super Bowls Won 9-Super Bowl Appearances [Since 1970]
The NHL and the NBA (assuming it isnt locked out forever) do not have wildcards per say. Instead, 8 teams from the league make the playoffs. Then they continue to play 7 game series for 4 series, making the playoffsboring long. 8/15 teams make the playoffs in both leagues, thats more than 50% of the league. It almost makes one wonder why a team would try for so long. A good example of this is the Washington Capitals. They get a lot of heat for being in the southeastern division, one of the weaker divisions, but continue to produce 100+ point seasons, quite the impressive feat. However, they haven't been to a Stanley Cup in years, in fact its been since 1998., yet they finished first in the league 4 years in a row. Shouldn't they be rewarded for this?
What Does Australia have anything to do with this?
The Australians may be up to something here. A friend of mine brought this up to me when were discussing this exact topic. In Australian, the better teams do have an advantage in the playoff structure. The first round works a lot like the American Structure. 1vs8 2vs7 3vs6 4vs5 : Standard. But what is interesting is the second round. All winning teams advance, but the two teams with the higher seed get a bye week, and the two teams with the lower seed of the losing side are eliminated. So for example, lets say the winners are 8,2,6,4 thus the losers are 1,7,3,5. So 2,4 would get the bye week, while 1 and 3 would get another chance to win. They are being rewarded somewhat for their season long success, but still have to win some important games.
Baseball :
If baseball does add teams to its post season play, i would like to see them try this system. It would be unique. I would like to see good teams be rewarded for having a season long of success, instead of losing to a fluke home-run, or having a pitcher injured for a game.
In Europe, they have mixed systems. The Barclay's Premier League, La Liga and the Bundesliga League all work on a "best" record system. Meaning, the team that ends the season with the most amount of points wins the league. Sure, it becomes less exciting when teams like Manchester United sweep the league and just crush their way to the top. But that is the World's way. The team that fought all year, shouldn't be suppressed to have to prove they are the best in some random series at the end of the year.
The World and It's Argument :
Formula 1, European Football, Golf and Rugby all have this style of awarding a winner. The team at the end of the season with the most points wins the League. While I was in England, I would discuss with the English about this. They always had solid arguments for this method. Think about if Aaron Rodgers got a concussion the last week of the season, and lets say the team had the most amount of points. Is it fair that the packers, who clearly showed they were the best should not be awarded the Super Bowl. The argument works really well in baseball where the sample size of games in much larger (162). The Phillies who are likely to go to the World Series should at least be given a direct path there. Instead, their very successful season will be tested unnecessarily against some random events. Randomness could kill a season, where the Phillies who have less likely Randomly got the most amount of points.
But this is America, and we love hope:
That is right, this is America, and like our founding, we want the small dog to overcome the evil empire [The British]. We want the Phillies to be upset by the struggling Braves, or to have the Tamp Bay Rays win on the final day of the season and make their way to the World Series where they win for the small town that barely has actual fans. This is something greater than sports!
Wild Card Sucess:
MLB : 3-World Series Won 8-World Series Appearances [Since 1981]
NFL : 5 - Super Bowls Won 9-Super Bowl Appearances [Since 1970]
The NHL and the NBA (assuming it isnt locked out forever) do not have wildcards per say. Instead, 8 teams from the league make the playoffs. Then they continue to play 7 game series for 4 series, making the playoffs
What Does Australia have anything to do with this?
The Australians may be up to something here. A friend of mine brought this up to me when were discussing this exact topic. In Australian, the better teams do have an advantage in the playoff structure. The first round works a lot like the American Structure. 1vs8 2vs7 3vs6 4vs5 : Standard. But what is interesting is the second round. All winning teams advance, but the two teams with the higher seed get a bye week, and the two teams with the lower seed of the losing side are eliminated. So for example, lets say the winners are 8,2,6,4 thus the losers are 1,7,3,5. So 2,4 would get the bye week, while 1 and 3 would get another chance to win. They are being rewarded somewhat for their season long success, but still have to win some important games.
Baseball :
If baseball does add teams to its post season play, i would like to see them try this system. It would be unique. I would like to see good teams be rewarded for having a season long of success, instead of losing to a fluke home-run, or having a pitcher injured for a game.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Expected Win Ratio: New Statistic
Baseball is a game of numbers, but aren't most sports. Bill James invented a metric called the Pythagorean Expectation. It derives its explanation from the Pythagorean Theorem. What the equation says is, if we take how many runs a team scores, square it, then divide that number by how many runs a team scored squared plus how many runs a team gave up (squared) we will get that team's winning (or losing) percentage.
So all in all it looks a little like this [Runs for]^2/([Runs for]^2+[Runs Against]^2).
Or more neatly
Now sabermetricans have perfected the equation, and realized that actual exponent should be around 1.86. There are many sabermetric articles about how well this is at calibrating the win expectation of a baseball team. Some teams are really good at beating the odds, meaning they win more games than their expected wins. In 2011,The San Francisco Gaints are the best team at this, they have won 6 more games than their expected winning percentage would say. Now all of this has been examined, so what does this really mean, why I am blogging about this. That is because, what if we borrowed this idea for other sports. Could we predict the winning percentage of your favorite football team?
Using a similar equation, but with Points For and Points against, allow us to start :
[Points for]^2/ ([Points For]^2 + [Points against]^2) .
Now if we optimize the Standard Error equation, being [Expected Winning - Actual winning]^2 . Our goal is to make the sum of those numbers the lowest, by adjusting the Expected winning number. And of course, the only thing that isnt constant is the exponent value. So if we optimize that, we should aquire the value of 2.50 .
So using the last 51 years of NFL data, a teams overall record can be determined by using the above equation.
This is a plot of all the data. As we would expect, it is very close to a straight line. That means that, our Estimated winning percentage is very close (in error) to the Actual winning percentage. There are a few minor flaws. The projection will rarely give a 0-16 season, but teams actually do that. But as you can see, the projection only predicted they would win 10% of their games, so still a small margin.
So what, why does this matter you may ask. How does this equation effect anything. It actually means a lot As I continue to examine predictors and estimates, we now can value a teams outcome. If we can predict (with in a certain error) a team's Points For, and a team's Points Against, we could predict how many games the team is going to win that season.
Now if we can use points to get wins, we could other stats to get points. How many points is a particular position responsible for, so if we add Quarterback B, who is expected to throw X amount of yards, we can contribute his X yards to Y wins. Almost in a linear fashion. So as I continue to expand the Football statistics I will refer to this expected winning ratio.
So all in all it looks a little like this [Runs for]^2/([Runs for]^2+[Runs Against]^2).
Or more neatly
Now sabermetricans have perfected the equation, and realized that actual exponent should be around 1.86. There are many sabermetric articles about how well this is at calibrating the win expectation of a baseball team. Some teams are really good at beating the odds, meaning they win more games than their expected wins. In 2011,The San Francisco Gaints are the best team at this, they have won 6 more games than their expected winning percentage would say. Now all of this has been examined, so what does this really mean, why I am blogging about this. That is because, what if we borrowed this idea for other sports. Could we predict the winning percentage of your favorite football team?
Using a similar equation, but with Points For and Points against, allow us to start :
[Points for]^2/ ([Points For]^2 + [Points against]^2) .
Now if we optimize the Standard Error equation, being [Expected Winning - Actual winning]^2 . Our goal is to make the sum of those numbers the lowest, by adjusting the Expected winning number. And of course, the only thing that isnt constant is the exponent value. So if we optimize that, we should aquire the value of 2.50 .
So using the last 51 years of NFL data, a teams overall record can be determined by using the above equation.
This is a plot of all the data. As we would expect, it is very close to a straight line. That means that, our Estimated winning percentage is very close (in error) to the Actual winning percentage. There are a few minor flaws. The projection will rarely give a 0-16 season, but teams actually do that. But as you can see, the projection only predicted they would win 10% of their games, so still a small margin.
So what, why does this matter you may ask. How does this equation effect anything. It actually means a lot As I continue to examine predictors and estimates, we now can value a teams outcome. If we can predict (with in a certain error) a team's Points For, and a team's Points Against, we could predict how many games the team is going to win that season.
Now if we can use points to get wins, we could other stats to get points. How many points is a particular position responsible for, so if we add Quarterback B, who is expected to throw X amount of yards, we can contribute his X yards to Y wins. Almost in a linear fashion. So as I continue to expand the Football statistics I will refer to this expected winning ratio.
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